Vulnerable House Republicans fear a fight over government shutdown is brewing after recess

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) unveiled his plan for government spending on a conference call with House Republicans on Wednesday, which would extend the fiscal 2025 funding deadline into next year. The six-month extension would also include the SAVE Act, a bill negotiated by Johnson and former President Donald Trump that would require proof of citizenship for voter registration — a measure that is unlikely to make it to the Democratic-led Senate.

Johnson told lawmakers he wants to vote on the spending legislation “as soon as possible,” one lawmaker on the call said. The Washington Examiner, It may be gearing up for a vote as early as next week. House leaders are expected to begin seeking support for the bill when lawmakers return to the Capitol on Monday, another lawmaker said.

The proposal, however, does not have unanimous support from Republicans, particularly those facing tough reelection campaigns in battleground districts. Even if the spending bill makes it through the House, some lawmakers predict it will be returned by the Senate as a clean extension of 2024 spending levels without political constraints.

That clean, continuing resolution, they argued, could be the only way to avoid a government shutdown, a crucial move to defend Republican seats in Democratic-leaning districts.

“I think we’re in a political melee, and some of the people who are in cubicles making decisions have never been in a melee,” said one House Republican. Washington Examiner. “We can’t close.”

Republicans hold a four-seat majority in the 220-seat House of Representatives, compared to Democrats’ 211. With 435 seats up for grabs in November, only 42 are considered competitive.

Of those contested seats, 17 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared with just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts won by Trump. As a result, many of those Republicans will likely want to spend the final months of the 2024 cycle on the campaign trail rather than prolonging a fight over government spending.

The proposal to delay the government spending deal until next year comes as Johnson faces pressure from those on his right flank to “use our influence” to ensure Democrats cannot use Biden’s final months in a transition period to push through a massive spending bill to advance the party’s agenda. Instead, the group wants to delay the process until next year, after they expect Trump to be sworn in for a second term.

But for Johnson, that may prove easier said than done. Several of his most hardline members in the House Republican caucus are threatening to vote against a final spending deal if the SAVE Act is not attached.

That could put him in a position where he would be dependent on Democratic votes to help him pass a clean CR that could be approved by the Senate and signed by the president to keep the government running. It’s reminiscent of last year’s spending fight, when then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) pushed a clean spending deal with Democratic support, leading to his impeachment just weeks later.

House leaders initially planned to pass all 12 appropriations bills before adjourning at the end of July, an ambitious goal they failed to meet due to partisan disagreements. Instead, the House only managed to pass five, with the others failing on the floor or being pulled from consideration for lack of support.

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Meanwhile, the Senate has not passed either bill, largely acknowledging that the spending fight will be left to the next administration. Still, House Democrats have largely blamed Republicans for the lack of a finalized budget.

“Just like last year, House Republicans’ refusal to meet with House Democrats at the table has left us with no time to pass all 12 bills before the end of September,” said House Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-CT). Washington Examiner“We need a continuing resolution because House Republicans are letting their most extreme members take over. Let’s hope they don’t lead us straight into a Republican shutdown.”